Commute Time Monte Carlo Simulation
Simulate your commute time to estimate arrival confidence. Adjust the variables below and run the simulation. This is a direct Monte Carlo simulation, which repeatedly samples from the defined probability distributions to build a distribution of commute times.
The Commute Problem
We are calculating the time it takes to commute from home to the office.
Questions to Answer:
- How much time do I need to allow in order to have 75% confidence that I will arrive on time?
- How much time should I allow in order to have 99.5% confidence that I will arrive on time (on days that start with an important meeting)?
The Situation Details:
- Drive 2 miles on a highway (Segment 1): 90% probability of averaging 65 MPH, 10% probability of averaging 20 MPH due to a traffic jam.
- Intersection: Encounter a traffic light that is red for 90 seconds and green for 30 seconds.
- Travel 2 more miles on a surface street (Segment 2): 70% probability of averaging 30 MPH, 10% probability of 20 MPH, 10% probability of 40 MPH, and 10% probability of a traffic jam taking 30 minutes for this segment.
Simulation Parameters
Segment 1: Highway
Intersection: Traffic Light
Segment 2: Surface Street
Segment 2 (cont.)
Key Confidence Levels
75% Confidence:
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99.5% Confidence:
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Average Time:
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Max Time:
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Min Time:
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